📊 Forecast Confidence Band
P10 / P50 / P90 distribution | Target: $150M by Q4 2026 | Refreshed 2026-08-13 06:03 CT
$38.5M
Closed Won (43 deals)
$437.4M
P10 — Downside Projection
$608.3M
P50 — Central Projection
$778.4M
P90 — Upside Projection
Projected Total vs $150M Target
Pipeline by Stage (P50 weighted)
| Stage |
Deals |
Raw Value |
Avg Prob |
Weighted (P50) |
| Contact Made |
74 |
$1790.6M |
30% |
$537.2M |
| GP Meeting Completed |
23 |
$69.8M |
30% |
$20.9M |
| Advanced Diligence |
8 |
$7.6M |
80% |
$6.1M |
| Reserved Allocation |
6 |
$4.8M |
50% |
$2.4M |
| Term Sheet Sent |
5 |
$2.1M |
95% |
$2.0M |
| GP Meeting Scheduled |
3 |
$6.0M |
20% |
$1.2M |
| Qualification |
2 |
$0K |
0% |
$0K |
⚠️ Calibration note: P10/P50/P90 multipliers (0.70x / 1.00x / 1.30x) are approximations. To properly calibrate: fetch Fund I+II closed deals from HubSpot deal-stage history (pipeline IDs for Fund I and Fund II), compute actual stage-to-close conversion rates by stage, and use those as priors for Fund III.
📌 Fund I+II data sourcing: Fund I+II historical conversion sourcing: use HubSpot Events API (GET /events/v3/events?objectType=deal&eventType=propertyChange&propertyName=dealstage) or deal property history endpoint to reconstruct stage transition funnels for closed funds.